National Aeronautics and Space Administration

National Climate Assessment

NASA National Climate Assessment (NCA) Activities

NASA Centers Call for Proposals

National Climate Assessment - 2011 NASA Centers Call For Proposals

Lead PI and Center: Timothy Hall, Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Title:  Hurricane Wind and Inundation Risk on the U.S. Northeast and New York City
Proposal Type: Assessment Capabilities & Products

Proposed Effort:
We propose to conduct a hazard assessment that dynamically merges hurricane storm surge and rainfall flooding, while also incorporating climate change and sea level rise. The approach will use a statistical-stochastic tropical cyclone model to quantify the annual probability of hurricane incidence along the US Northeast coast as a function of five damage-related variables: intensity, size, propagation speed, tidal phase, and impact angle. A simulated hurricane typical of each variable combination will be used to drive a high-resolution three-dimensional hydrodynamic model of the New York City (NYC) area, thereby providing storm surge inundation risk on NYC. This analysis will be repeated for several values of sea level, as projected by climate models over the coming decades, as well as for the increased rainfall rates in a warmer climate.

The proposed work exploits NASA modeling capabilities: the GISS-built stochastic hurricane model, as well as relevant climate-state variables from the GISS global climate model. In addition, a coastal hydrodynamic model (“sECOM”), developed at the nearby Stevens Institute of Technology will be used. The combined statistical-dynamical TC wind and surge analysis will combine for the first time in a single framework wind-driven, wave-driven, and rain-driven flood effects.

The work addresses key sections of the National Climate Assessment (NCA), including regions” (US Northeast and NYC), “Cross-Cutting” (extreme events), and “Human Responses” (disaster preparedness and risk-based approaches).

Project Publications:

Georgas, N., P. M. Orton, A. Blumberg, L. Cohen, D. Sarrilli, and L. Yin, 2014, The impact of tidal phase on Hurricane Sandy’s flooding around New York City and Long Island Sound, J. Extreme Events, DOI: 10.1142/S2345737614500067.

Hall, T. M. and E. Yonekura, 2013, North-American tropical cyclone landfall and SST: A statistical model study, J. Climate, 26, 8422-8439.

Hall, T. M., and A. H. Sobel, 2013, On the impact angle of Hurricane Sandy’s New Jersey landfall, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 2312-2315.

Yonekura, E., and T. M. Hall, 2014, ENSO effect on East Asian tropical cyclone landfall via changes in tracks and genesis in a statistical model, J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol., 53, 406-420.