National Aeronautics and Space Administration

National Climate Assessment

NASA National Climate Assessment (NCA) Activities

NASA Centers Call for Proposals

National Climate Assessment - 2011 NASA Centers Call For Proposals

Lead PI and Center: Cynthia Rosenzweig, Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Title:  Urban Vulnerability Assessment for the Health and Infrastructure Sectors
Proposal Type: Assessment Capabilities & Products

A partnership between the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) would develop Assessment Capabilities and Products for urban areas, and for the urban infrastructure and public health cross-cutting theme of the National Climate Assessment (NCA) (pending FAC approval).

Proposed Effort:
Our effort explores regional vulnerabilities to climate variability and change in urban areas using an end-to-end approach that combines:

  1. statistically downscaled projections from CMIP phases 3 and 5 global climate models from GISS and the wider ensemble,
  2. impact assessment based on empirical approaches and analysis of the infrastructure (e.g., energy, transportation, and water) and health (e.g., heat-related mortality) sectors, and
  3. inventory of adaptation strategies in the infrastructure and health sectors, and testing of adaptation and mitigation strategies to reduce risks associated with heat waves.

This work would complement our contributions (some externally-funded) to the Urban, Northeast Region, and Southeast and Caribbean Region chapters of the NCA, including an assessment of unique challenges to cities of different regions and populations.

One unique element is the integration of local land use and microclimatic data on urban heat islands and extreme precipitation into the regional downscaling and scenarios generation framework, incorporating retrospective (Re-)analyses such as the NASA GMAO MERRA, and satellite products including MODIS. Another unique element is the application of a risk management and adaptation approach that has successfully been implemented at NASA Centers to the infrastructure and health sectors in urban areas nationwide. A third element will be the advancement of an Indicators and Monitoring Program, based on NASA products that have been identified through the center inventories developed as part of the Climate Adaptation Science Investigator Work Group (CASI) Phase I activities.

Project Publications:

DiGiovanni, K., F. Montalto, S. Gaffin, and C. Rosenzweig. (2013). The applicability of classical predictive equations for the estimation of evapotranspiration from urban green spaces: Green roof results. J. Hydrol. Eng., 18, 99-107.

Gaffin, S., Rosenzweig, R. and A.Y.Y. Kong, 2012a: Adapting To Climate Change Through Urban Green Infrastructure, Nature Climate Change, v. 2, p. 704.

Gaffin, S.R., M. Imhoff, C. Rosenzweig, R. Khanbilvardi, A. Pasqualini, A.Y.Y. Kong, D. Grillo, A. Freed, D. Hillel, and E. Hartung, 2012b: Bright is the new black — multi-year performance of high-albedo roofs in an urban climate. Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 014029, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014029.

Horton, R., D. Bader, Y. Kushner, C. Little, R. Blake, and C. Rosenzweig, 2015: New York City Panel on Climate Change 2015 Report: Climate observations and projections. Ann. New York Acad. Sci., 1336, 18-35, doi:10.1111/nyas.12586.

Li, T., R.M. Horton, and P.L. Kinney, 2013: Projections of seasonal patterns in temperature- related deaths for Manhattan, New York. Nature Clim. Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate1902.

Marasco, D.E., B.N. Hunter, P.J. Culligan, S.R. Gaffin, and W.R. McGillis. (2014). Quantifying evapotranspiration from urban green roofs: A comparison of chamber measurements with commonly used predictive methods. Environ. Sci. Technol., 48, no. 17, 10273-10281.

Petkova, E.P., D.A. Bader, G.B. Anderson, R.M. Horton, K. Knowlton, and P.L. Kinney, 2014: Heat-related mortality in a warming climate: Projections for 12 U.S. cities. Intl. J. Environ. Res. Public Health, 11, no. 11, 11371-11383, doi:10.3390/ijerph111111371.

Petkova, E.P., R.M. Horton, D.A. Bader, and P.L. Kinney, 2013: Projected heat-related mortality in the U.S. urban Northeast. Intl. J. Environ. Res. Public Health, 10, 6734-6746, doi:10.3390/ijerph10126734.

Quattrochi, D. and Co-Authors. 2012: Climate Interactions with the Built Environment.  In Southeast Region Technical Report to the National Climate Assessment.

Rosenzweig, C., and W. Solecki, 2015: New York City Panel on Climate Change 2015 Report: Introduction. Ann. New York Acad. Sci., 1336, 3-5, doi:10.1111/nyas.12625.

Rosenzweig, C., and W. Solecki (Eds.), 2013: Climate Risk Information 2013: Observations, Climate Change Projections, and Maps. New York City Panel on Climate Change.

Solecki, W., C. Rosenzweig, R. Blake, A. de Sherbinin, T. Matte, F. Moshary, B. Rosenweig, M. Arend, S. Gaffin, E. Bou-Zeif, K. Rule, G. Sweeny, and W. Dessy, 2015: New York City Panel on Climate Change 2015 Report: Indicators and monitoring. Ann. New York Acad. Sci., 1336, 89-106, doi:10.1111/nyas.12625.