Development and Testing of Potential Indicators for the National Climate Assessment
Lead PI and Center: Paul Houser, George Mason University
Title: Water Cycle Intensification Indicator (WCI)
Abstract:
The most significant climate change impacts are shifts in the distribution of precipitation and evaporation, and the exacerbation of extreme hydrologic events. Therefore, we propose to develop and test potentially spatially- and temporally-scalable Water Cycle intensification Indicators (WCI) using NASA observations and model reanalyses in support of the National Climate Assessment (NCA). The WCI will summarize how climate changes result in stronger or more extreme water cycling over the nation. The final composite WCIwill be a monthly, vertically integrated gridded composite of primary water cycle trends and extremes, integrated and weighted through water balance concepts. The WCI will provide baselines and future projections to compare options about how society can best address water issues, and will provide the water sector with sources and perspectives of data not otherwise available. By providing a key set of indicators on the water cycle consequences of climate change of direct relevance to a broad set of stakeholders, and actively increasing the pool of assessment-capable scientists by involving a recently graduated postdoctoral fellow, the proposal is directly relevant to the NASA-ROSES A.47 solicitation.